Do voters polarise in response to elite dissensus on immigration?

Abstract

While much of the existing research on public opinion about immigration focuses on anti-immigrant sentiment, less is known about voter polarisation on this issue and its determinants. This article examines the conditions under which elite polarisation, a factor shown in previous research to shape public opinion on a variety of issues, impacts voter polarisation on immigration. To this end, it employs a two-pronged empirical strategy. First, it exploits variation in individual attitudes and elite stances across countries and over time (2002–2019). Second, it employs individual panel data analyses and an instrumental variable approach, respectively. The results reveal little evidence that voters polarise in response to growing elite dissensus, except after elections with a radical right party breakthrough in the national parliament. Instead, some evidence suggests that elite polarisation may in fact depolarise non-partisan voters in remaining elections. These results have important implications for understanding mass–elite linkages on socio-cultural issues.