Interpersonal political discussion and affective polarization: Comparative evidence from 41 elections and five panel studies

Abstract

Using data from 41 democratic elections across 20 countries via the Comparative National Elections Project, this research investigates how political discussion network composition is linked to affective polarization during electoral periods. We differentiate between in-party discussions (with co-partisans) and out-party discussions (with opposing partisans), examining their effects on in-party affinity and out-party animosity. Multilevel analyses reveal asymmetric effects: in-party discussions consistently increase both partisan affinity and out-party animosity, with effects intensifying as homogeneous network size increases. In contrast, out-party discussions reduce out-party animosity only among individuals whose networks consist exclusively of political opponents—a relatively rare configuration. When networks combine both in-party and out-party discussants, the polarizing influence of co-partisan discussion dominates, increasing overall affective polarization. Cross-lagged panel analyses using data from four European democracies—Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, and Portugal— and one Latin American—Chile— provide evidence consistent with reciprocal dynamics: findings suggest that in-party discussions are associated with higher polarization in some contexts, while revealing robust patterns indicating that existing polarization shapes discussion partner selection through affective avoidance. This avoidance mechanism proves remarkably consistent: out-party animosity predicts reduced cross-partisan discussion in four of five countries, suggesting that polarized citizens systematically withdraw from conversations with political opponents. In contrast, the depolarizing potential of cross-partisan contact emerges only in specific electoral contexts. These findings challenge assumptions about the universal benefits of cross-cutting political exposure and highlight the predominant role of homophilous networks in driving democratic societies toward increasing affective polarization.