Determinants of political polarisation in the context of democratic renewal: A study of public attitudes in Poland

Abstract

This article examines the dynamics of political polarisation in Poland in the context of democratic backsliding (2015–2023) and subsequent democratic renewal following the 2023 parliamentary elections. Drawing on newly released ActEU public opinion data, we demonstrate that the primary driver of polarisation during Poland’s democratic renewal was not the division between democratic and autocratic attitudes but rather a deep cultural conflict between liberal-progressive and traditional-nationalist values. Hence, the study shows that a democracy–autocracy divide does not need to manifest at the attitudinal level for democratic renewal to occur. Instead, the main pro-democratic party elites can strategically layer a democracy–autocracy narrative onto the dominant cultural cleavage to pull support from other parties before the elections and form a broader multi-party bloc that helps unseat the incumbents. These findings shed new light on the debate about the relationship between polarisation and democratic change, suggesting that pro-democratic actors can utilise polarising cultural conflicts to bring about democratic recovery.